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Each year, ESPN comes out with their College Football Power Index numbers that give a mathematical approach to each team’s chance to win it all.
Not only does FPI provide the chance for each team win a national championship, but also their likelihood to win their respective conference, make the College Football Playoff, and win their conference’s division.
Wisconsin is expected to take a leap from last season’s disappointing ending with the hire of new head coach Luke Fickell, but what are the likelihoods of winning the conference or even making the playoff?
Here is what ESPN’s FPI metric has to say about Wisconsin’s chances:
Chance to win 6 or more games: 98.5%
Wisconsin head football coach Luke Fickell is shown during practice Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis.
If Wisconsin isn’t bowl eligible, something went horribly, horribly wrong. The Badgers have a non-conference slate that produces two wins that should be a walk in the park, and the Big Ten has many question marks throughout the league.
Chance to win the division: 47.9%
Apr 11, 2023; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin wide receiver Chimere Dike (13) is shown during practice Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
This number is much higher for Wisconsin than it is for any of the Big Ten East teams not named Ohio State, and for good reason. The Big Ten West has no clear favorite this season, with coaching turnover, quarterback turnover, and more.
Chance to win Big Ten: 5.9%
Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell watches defensive end Tommy Brunner go though a drill during the team’s first spring practice on Saturday March 25, 2023 at the McClain Center in Madison, Wis.
Uw Football Spring Practice 5 March 25 2023
While there is a good chance the Badgers get to the Big Ten championship game, there is little chance they will be favored if they do. Ohio State or Michigan will likely be looming on the other side for the Badgers.
Chance to make the playoff: 1.0%
Wisconsin quarterback Tanner Mordecai throws a pass during first spring football practice of the season on Saturday March 25, 2023 at the McClain Center in Madison, Wis.
Uw Football Spring Practice 9 March 25 2023
So you are saying there’s a chance? Yes, albeit a very small one. Wisconsin would have to go through the Big Ten unscathed, likely have to beat Ohio State at home in conference play, and then win the Big Ten championship.
Chance to make national championship game: 0.2%
Sep 10, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers logo on a flag prior to the game against the Washington State Cougars at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
So you’re still saying there’s a chance? Well, let’s just leave this one up to imagination.
Chance to win national championship game: 0.2%
Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell arrives at Sky Harbor International Airport on Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022, ahead of their Guaranteed Rate Bowl game against Oklahoma State University.
Badgers Arrive 5
You can begin building the Luke Fickell statue now.
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