NFL Week 6 Picks, Odds: Browns shock Steelers, Bears (!) win, Titans/Texans have interaction in shootout


As famous on the Friday Decide Six Podcast, we noticed a spike in holding calls, up almost a full holding flag per sport from the week prior. That does not look like an enormous quantity, nevertheless it issues a ton — if you begin calling extra holding, you drastically cut back scoring and also you drag out video games.

Will we see one other improve this week? Or will the NFL proceed to emphasis scoring? Sooner or later there’s going to be a backside dropping out of this over social gathering, however I do not QUITE suppose it will be this week (I might be mistaken, my picks have not been spot on the previous couple of weeks). I feel we see loads of scoring and a few upsets. 

With out additional ado, all of my bets of the week:

Chicago (4-1) at Carolina (3-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Level unfold: Panthers, -2.5 

I truly do not love this sport from a betting standpoint, nevertheless, I’ve determined to take a special approach with the Bears and their followers this season. As an alternative of choosing them to lose 24-3 each week and listening to crap from them once they win, I’ll pull a triple-level troll transfer right here and begin choosing them to win each week. Sure, I will probably be sacrificing my private ATS file within the hopes that the Bears lose each sport shifting ahead. Let’s get scorching! 

The Decide: Bears 17, Panthers 16

Baltimore (4-1) at Philadelphia (1-2-1)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Ravens -7.5

For a scorching minute there, I used to be leaning bailing on my “Carson Wentz shocks the world with a backdoor cowl” … and I made a decision to in the end do it. The Ravens are only a higher staff and they don’t seem to be afraid to blow out a nasty staff. We have not seen a NOVA sport from Lamar Jackson but and I feel we get one this week. He and Marquise Brown hook up for a few scores on a porous Eagles protection and Lamar runs for an additional couple himself. 

The Decide: Ravens 41, Eagles 17

Atlanta (0-5) at Minnesota (1-4)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Level unfold: Vikings -4 

Anybody who reads my picks columns through the years is aware of I am an enormous fan of the Useless Cat Bounce. If you do not know what it means, principally it entails a staff firing its coach after which taking part in effectively the next week. Gamers have acknowledged this can be a factor (Brady Quinn talked about how everybody cranks up the power a notch when the coach is canned since you understand everybody’s job is on the road) and it reveals up fairly effectively within the stat line and the outcomes. We noticed the Texans care for enterprise towards the Jags final week after Invoice O’Brien was fired. I feel the Falcons will do one thing related and attempt to air it out towards a porous Vikings protection. Matt Ryan will probably be miffed at Arthur Clean’s feedback and seeking to show one thing. Huge day for him, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.

The Decide: Falcons 35, Vikings 28

Cleveland (4-1) at Pittsburgh (4-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Steelers -3.5

Actually, actually, actually need to choose the Browns right here. I feel they’re legit at 4-1 — the primary time since 1994 — however the particular circumstances surrounding this sport have me slightly spooked. We do not know if Odell Beckham goes to play, after the star extensive receiver was despatched residence with an sickness on Thursday. Baker Mayfield ought to be good to go, however he is banged up this week. The Steelers have not ever misplaced to Cleveland at residence beneath Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger LIGHTS UP the Browns as a result of they handed on him in 2004 and he nonetheless has a chip on his shoulder. However you understand what? I do not care. I am right here to LIVE. Give me Cleveland. Love the over on this sport too, as effectively. 

The Decide: Browns 31, Steelers 28

Houston (1-4) at Tennessee (4-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Titans -3

I am by no means doubting Mike Vrabel’s staff once more. What a formidable effort towards Buffalo with no apply. He went Full Belichick and satisfied his staff to get motivated by screwing up the COVID protocols. It labored and Tennessee regarded nice towards Buffalo. They used a system — dropping again in zone protection and forcing an impatient quarterback who likes to run to beat them by studying the total discipline and being tremendous aggressive into quick home windows — to take out Josh Allen. We noticed the Vikings do the identical factor towards Deshaun Watson and it labored very effectively. I feel we’ll see a repeat this week and the Titans can win this sport. I like the over 53 right here as effectively, however in the event you go that route you want Watson to lob up factors late, which Allen and Buffalo didn’t do.

The Decide: Titans 31, Texans 24

1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Level unfold: Giants -2.5

I am not going to overcomplicate issues right here: the Giants shouldn’t be favored in any soccer sport proper now. 

The Decide: Washington 17, Giants 14

Cincinnati (1-3-1) at Indianapolis (3-2)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Indianapolis -8

Made a serious mistake assuming Joe Burrow may storm by the backdoor towards the Ravens and their protection. I feel Indy will probably be totally different — their protection is nice, however they’re prepared to let groups cling round by not closing out within the crimson zone and taking part in stop/melting clock within the second half. That ought to be sufficient to let Joe Burrow sneak by the backdoor getting greater than a landing. If Darius Leonard does not play, I like Joe Mixon’s prop overs and utilizing him in DFS. I like Jonathan Taylor props both means. Breakout sport coming for him.

The Decide: Colts 21, Bengals 14

Denver (1-3) at New England (2-2)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Steelers -9.5

There are nearly 20 quarterbacks beneath the age of 25 who’ve ever received a soccer sport — residence or away — towards Invoice Belichick over the 20 years. That is not quite a bit. The Pats aren’t the identical as their peak, however they managed to bottle up Patrick Mahomes the opposite day. I feel they will deal with Drew Lock and/or Brett Rypien. With Cam Newton again and Damien Harris rising, we may definitely see this sport find yourself being a low-scoring slog with a late defensive rating by New England.

The Decide: Patriots 28, Broncos 14

Detroit (1-3) at Jacksonville (1-4)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Level unfold: Lions -3

The Lions are higher than 1-3, are coming off a bye, have an excellent passing offense and are taking part in towards the worst protection in soccer. The Jaguars cannot cease anybody and haven’t got a complete lot of effectivity relating to their crimson zone efficiency and/or their kicking sport. Gardner Minshew ought to be capable of cross on this sport — the Lions aren’t good on protection both — however I will take the higher quarterback and the higher staff right here laying the factors. If Matt Patricia blows one other double-digit lead he could be on the lookout for a job.

The Decide: Lions 35, Jaguars 31

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Dolphins -8

Once more, not going to overcomplicate issues right here: I cannot be betting on the mixture of the Jets and Adam Gase ever once more, particularly so long as they’re trotting out Joe Flacco and Frank Gore

The Decide: Dolphins 24, Jets 13

Inexperienced Bay (4-0) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Level unfold: Packers -1

Excellent late sport between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. The Packers are in all probability the higher staff right here, however that is kind of a desperation sport for the Buccaneers, who would fall to 3-3 after dropping to the Bears final week. The Packers are off a bye however the Bucs get 10 days relaxation too. I’m very to see how the Tampa run protection responds to the lack of Vita Vea. Among the finest run defenders within the NFL just some years into his profession, dropping him may unlock Aaron Jones in an enormous means. I will remorse this choose if it is that problematic, however I are inclined to suppose Brady — who caught a backhanded insult from Jamaal Williams this week —  will come out weapons blazing for this matchup and care for enterprise at residence.

The Decide: Buccaneers 28, Packers 24

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Level unfold: 49ers +3.5

Form of just like the Philly sport, I’ll purchase as little as doable on a canine right here. The 49ers are a staff nobody needs something to do with. They only misplaced to the Dolphins in horrific style at residence. The Rams are taking part in effectively and everybody will probably be on them. Give me Jimmy Garoppolo in a bounceback/buy-low spot, together with the 49ers speeding assault and an enormous stage for George Kittle. Kyle Shanahan is not going to only lie down and get steamrolled at residence once more, particularly in an enormous division sport towards a rival with the 49ers desperately needing to select up a win with key division video games looming. They’re going to cling shut or win outright.

The Decide: 49ers 24, Rams 21

Kansas Metropolis (4-1) at Buffalo (4-1)

5 p.m. ET (NFLN)
Level unfold: Chiefs -3.5

Just like the Titans, the Chiefs have proven a capability to play loads of zone protection and restrict an explosive passing offense with a speeding quarterback. They need to be capable of do it towards the Payments right here — I’m slightly involved they might hand over shot performs to Stefon Diggs as they did to Henry Ruggs and Nelson Agholar for Las Vegas final week, however I feel Steve Spagnuolo can prepare dinner up a protection to decelerate Buffalo. I do not suppose Buffalo can cease the Chiefs offense proper now. Oddly sufficient, this might be a get proper spot for Patrick Mahomes and Co.

The Decide: Chiefs 35, Payments 28

Cardinals (3-2) at Dallas (2-3)

8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Level unfold: Cardinals -1.5

Andy Dalton in prime time? Sure, I’ll fade him. I truly suppose Dalton will play effectively on this spot, with Chandler Jones out for the Cardinals and the weapons he has at his disposal. However the Cowboys are coping with main offensive line points and Dalton with out safety is an issue. The Cowboys protection is impressively unhealthy and Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins ought to be capable of assault them by the air. 

The Decide: Cardinals 28, Cowboys 21



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