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We know you are still likely wallowing in sorrow after the most Ohio State football defeat at the hands of Michigan. After dominating the rivalry for almost two decades, the tide appears to be turning a bit — at least for now.
Despite the loss though, there is still a decent chance that the Buckeyes can get into the College Football Playoff, In fact, according to the ESPN Playoff Predictor which we’ve followed from time to time here at Buckeyes Wire, Ohio State has a better chance of making the CFP than the USC Trojans.
Even more surprising — and I’m not sure I believe this — the model suggests Ohio State has a better chance even if USC beats Utah in Friday night’s Pac-12 Championship game.
Aside from that, there are still some permutations that would get OSU into the final four teams if things break right. Here’s how it all breaks down, with a start of the percentage chances of the top five teams making the playoff with all the favorites winning their conference championship games.
No. 5 – USC Trojans (11-1)
Sep 24, 2022; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs against Oregon State Beavers defensive back Rejzohn Wright (2) at Reser Stadium. Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
43%
No. 4 – Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
Nov 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) celebrates a first down in front of Michigan Wolverines defensive back DJ Turner (5) during the first half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
51%
No. 3 – TCU Horned Frogs (12-0)
TCU’s wide receiver Derius Davis (11) gestures after scoring a touchdown against Texas Tech, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
>99%
Michigan Wolverines (12-0)
Nov 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Michigan Wolverines cheerleader celebrates a touchdown by wide receiver Cornelius Johnson (6) during the first half of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch
Ncaa Football Michigan Wolverines At Ohio State Buckeyes
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
>99%
Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)
Nov 19, 2022; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Kelee Ringo (5) and defensive back Malaki Starks (24) celebrate during the second quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
>99%
Now, this isn’t the only scenario that is in play, the other one that could be interesting is if TCU loses in the Big 12 Championship game, or if both TCU and USC lose. Since you have to believe both Michigan and Georgia are locked in no matter what happens on Saturday, we’ll focus on these two scenarios.
NEXT … The TCU scenario
Each of the five contenders chances if only TCU loses in the Big 12 Championship game
Nov 26, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) points at his receiver after throwing a touchdown pass against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
Each team’s CFP chances according to the ESPN Playoff Predictor
Georgia | >99%
Michigan | >99%
TCU | 72%
Ohio State | 62%
USC | 56%
Now, what if both TCU and USC lose their conference title games? Here’s how the numbers shake out according to ESPN if that presents itself.
NEXT … If TCU and USC bite the bullet
If both USC and TCU lose their conference championship games
AUSTIN, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 12: Lwal Uguak #96 of the TCU Horned Frogs celebrates after defeating the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 12, 2022, in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Each team’s CFP chances according to the ESPN Playoff Predictor
Georgia | >99%
Michigan | >99%
TCU | 87%
Ohio State | 82%
Alabama | 23%
Interestingly enough, USC completely disappears out of the top five here and Ohio State is now given an almost lock of a chance to get into the College Football Playoff. Again, I’m not sure I would subscribe to this, and I don’t see any path for Alabama to get in, but this model says that Ohio State is in good shape almost no matter what.
We say the game you really have to look at is Friday night’s Pac-12 Championship game. If USC loses, there’s a good chance Ohio State is in, if not — well, we’re probably looking at a New Year’s Six game either in Miami or Pasadena.
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